A new year has barely begun, and Canada faces another new trade threat from the U.S., made just this past weekend, with President Donald Trump threatening a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Canada proceeds to lower tariffs on Chinese imports.

In retrospect, comments made by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith at a gathering of Canadian energy industry leaders and proponents last week at the Calgary Petroleum Club have become even more relevant and critical.By Maureen McCall

January 27, 2026 | EnergyNow Media

The 2025 United States trade war with Canada began almost a year ago, on February 1st, when U.S. President Donald Trump signed three executive orders imposing 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, with an exception for Canadian oil and energy exports, which received a 10 percent tariff.

These recent U.S. tariff increases have been forcing Canada to rethink our export strategies with a greater focus on traditional energy sectors like liquid natural gas and oil export to Asia. Policies and plans, like the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), are emerging to create collaborations for unlocking the growth potential of Western Canada’s oil and gas, renewable energy, critical minerals, and other resources, while also navigating economic and political uncertainty.

Premier Smith’s address last week at an EnergyNow Insights event and the ensuing conversation with Tracey Bodnarchuk, CEO of Canada Powered by Women, revolved around the policies and strategic partnerships of Alberta’s energy sector that can either hold it back or propel it forward.

“We are a few weeks into 2026, and in some ways, the situation feels a little bit like it did at this time last year,” Smith said. “There are challenges that are facing our economy and our energy sector. Some are external. Some are internal to Canada, and some are self-inflicted. Twelve months ago, Canada was in crisis mode – scrambling to respond to U.S. President Donald Trump, to the tariff imposition that he was threatening to bring on us. I’m sure that we all remember those days, the apocalyptic headlines, the anxiety and the uncertainty that swept across the country. Well, one year on, I don’t know that things have improved all that much. We’re now in a fresh wave of uncertainty in the wake of the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and President Trump’s comments on developing that nation’s reserves.”

Add this past weekend’s 100% tariff threat to that fresh wave of uncertainty. But what are the solutions?

Smith reflected on how the November 2025 MOU created an Energy Accord with Ottawa in response to the crisis of U.S. tariff impositions, calling it “the biggest energy story of 2025” and noting that 2025 will be remembered as a pivotal and transformative year. As for 2026 and beyond, Smith sees huge potential in partnerships.

“Energy security has become a paramount concern for every nation on earth, and particularly those without energy resources of their own,” Smith said. “We see a huge potential, for example, in the energy markets in East Asia, and bitumen is a very good fit for the refineries of South Korea. During my most recent visit, our partners there have told us that they’ll buy about as much as we can send them. And of course, there’s the industrial giant of East Asia -China – the world’s single largest driver of energy demand. Expanding access to markets across the Pacific is essential to Alberta’s strategy to diversify our customer base, and we’re doing everything we can to ensure, to secure those partnerships. Alberta’s abundant energy reserves and our well-established rights as a trustworthy supplier make us a pretty appealing partner in a world where energy matters more than ever.”

The MOU agreement with Ottawa includes a commitment to a million barrels per day bitumen pipeline, and Alberta is exploring various pipeline routes to East Asian markets, including a West Coast pipeline. Discussions of markets, according to Smith, lead back to Venezuela, as she said:

“Recent developments in South America underscore the need for Alberta and for Canada to expand market access in every direction, which makes a West Coast bitumen pipeline more urgent than ever. And from Alberta’s perspective, the stakes are higher -but our strategy is exactly the same…expand market access, attract investment, and strengthen global energy security.”

Attendees in attendance applauded the Premier’s focus on new markets and policy focus on long term investment that extends beyond the four-year election cycle.

Katarzyna Piquette, Strategic Energy Security Advisor at Canada Energy Ventures, commented, “It was highlighted that Alberta’s ambition to become an energy superpower will depend on long-term structural investments – from large-scale carbon capture such as the Pathways project to expanded pipeline capacity, nuclear generation, grid interties, and AI-driven power demand. These are the kinds of infrastructure decisions that shape economic and energy outcomes for generations, no matter which political party is in power.”

In response to the urgent timing of a pipeline to new markets, Smith emphasized that Alberta will be submitting a pipeline application to the major projects office by June 2026. Smith is also working on early dialogues with Indigenous communities, determining the potential routes and the costs of the pipeline, and working to demonstrate market demand for the new pipeline. She said this will lay a solid foundation to attract investment and build a pipeline in partnership with indigenous communities, ensuring that Indigenous co-ownership and partnership are a feature of the project from the beginning. She insisted that Indigenous engagement in the planning process and eventual co-ownership is critical to ensuring the project’s success. It offers the potential to deliver tremendous value for every partner who is involved.

Dale Swampy, President of the National Coalition of Chiefs and former mediator for the Northern Gateway Aboriginal Equity Partners group, was in attendance and spoke in favour of the value to Indigenous communities.

“I think the Premier is doing a great job to get a much-needed bitumen pipeline to the northwest B.C. coast. The economic opportunity for First Nations in owning a pipeline of this magnitude is unprecedented. The original Northern Gateway Project (NGP) offered communities over 2 billion dollars in benefits over thirty years, including two $200 million First Nation-managed funds for community investment and training. Ten years later, you can be sure this number will increase.”

Another major initiative Alberta will advance this year is the Pathways Alliance Carbon Capture project. Alberta is already a worldwide leader in carbon capture technology, and the Pathways project is an opportunity to make a huge reduction in emissions as Alberta heads towards the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. Alberta is also continuing to work on attracting AI data center investment with numerous projects at various stages in the application and development process.

However, Smith acknowledged that there are still challenges, noting that approval timelines in Canada are still far too long while our competitors are streamlining their approval processes and drawing in investment dollars. She has submitted a letter to Prime Minister Carney to ask for an expedited decision on the West Coast pipeline by this fall. There remains a lot of work to be done to de-risk investment in the pipeline. Smith says if Canada is going to achieve its energy ambitions, getting rid of the “nine bad laws” is a good start, but an exemption to the federal tanker ban to enable energy exports at a scale from Northwest British Columbia is paramount. She acknowledged that the work is ongoing, with eyes firmly fixed on that June deadline.

“ 2026 is shaping up to be another roller coaster of a year. But I am optimistic,” Smith said. “Now, at long last, we have a collaborative partner with Ottawa and a broad consensus from across the country that our best shot at a prosperous future for Canada as a whole is Canadian energy, and Alberta energy in particular. So mark my words… Alberta will play a central role in that future.”

Maureen McCall is an energy professional who writes on issues affecting the energy industry.